Jasmerah (The red suit) is a phrase coined by Bung Karno. It’s a short form of “Jangan sekali-kali meninggalkan sejarah” (Never leave history behind).
In his final speech as the President of the Republic of Indonesia on August 17, 1966, Bung Karno said the following:
“Never leave history behind. Do not leave your past behind; you will stand on a vacuum, you will stand on emptiness, and then you will be confused, and your struggle will most likely be in vain!”
Jasmerah, along with the historical fact, during the Reform era, specifically the direct election of legislative and presidential candidates by the people, the ruling party “only” held power for 2 terms, or just 10 years. Then a new ruling party took its place as the new comer.
In Indonesia’s history, political parties that have held power at the national level have typically been limited to two consecutive terms, or a total of 10 years. This pattern emerged following the era of President Sukarno and continued in the post-Suharto era during the Reformasi period. The limitation of two terms was implemented to prevent the concentration of power and promote a more democratic and competitive political environment.
This fact underscores the importance of regular elections and peaceful transitions of power in Indonesia’s democratic system. It also reflects the nation’s commitment to ensuring that no single party or leader holds power indefinitely, which is a fundamental principle of democratic governance.
For the last 20 years, throughout the history of direct elections by the people, the ruling party only remained in power for 2 terms. It was either challenged or replaced by a party that was previously not even considered or predicted.
The Reform era in Indonesia began in 1998 with the fall of the New Order regime. One crucial aspect of the Reform era was the introduction of direct elections for legislative and presidential positions by the people. This marked a significant change in Indonesia’s political system, which had previously been characterized by authoritarianism.
Will this historical pattern repeat itself in 2024? Signs of the times are starting to show a similar historical pattern.
The question that arises is whether this pattern will repeat in 2024. This is an interesting question because politics always involves complex dynamics. Some factors to consider are:
Current Government Performance: Does the ruling party currently in power have good performance and high popularity, or the opposite? This will affect the likelihood of the party’s re-election.
Political Challenges: How are opposition parties moving? Are they able to mobilize strong support and attract voters?
Key Issues: What are the dominant issues during the upcoming period? Issues like the economy, the environment, or social justice can play a crucial role in the election.
Voter Participation: The level of voter participation can also influence the election outcome. Are people motivated to participate in the election process?
Will the “historical destiny” repeat in 2024?
It’s still too early to say. It’s speculative.
However, by considering historical factors and the trends in people’s choices mentioned above, we can try to predict the possible election results or changes in government.
These are just examples of how the political history of a country can follow a certain pattern, but at the same time, politics is always full of uncertainty and change.
Who can read and play the game? Who can read the signs of the times and play their cards right?
Only those who have insight. Those who receive visions not at night. Those who can read the people’s souls.
And act skillfully at the right time. Not just as a mouthpiece of the people, but also as someone who bridges their needs and desires.
Who are they? They are moving in silence. Like a bulb, growing in silence. A rose that blooms in the unseen. *)
